Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 97% |
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 26.5 | 97% |
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| O/U 32.5 | 96% |
| O/U 34.5 | 94% |
| O/U 36.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 92% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 90% |
| O/U 38.5 | 88% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 88% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 87% |
| O/U 40.5 | 84% |
| O/U 42.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 80% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 77% |
| O/U 44.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| O/U 46.5 | 70% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| Bills vs. Raiders | 69% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 69% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| O/U 48.5 | 66% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| 1H Moneyline | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 61% |
| O/U 50.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 58% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 58% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| O/U 52.5 | 54% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 54% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills vs. Raiders: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Safety? | 49% |
| Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 48% |
| O/U 54.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 47% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 44% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 43% |
| O/U 56.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 36% |
| O/U 58.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| O/U 60.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 62.5 | 26% |
| Spread -19.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| O/U 64.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 66.5 | 18% |
| Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| Spread -5.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| O/U 68.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, bills vs. raiders stands at 97% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Raiders, scheduled for October 18 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if Bills win the game. This market will reso…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $184K.
Methodology
We track Bills vs. Raiders across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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