IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

IF Elfsborg and IK Sirius faced off in an Allsvenskan fixture at Borås Arena on Sunday, 19 July 2026, with the match concluding in a 0–0 draw. The crowd-implied probability for the “More Markets” outcome sits at 0% YES, reflecting a consensus that no secondary betting trigger—such as a specific goal tally, card count, or corner threshold—was activated. This aligns with historical patterns: in their last 20 head-to-head meetings, nine ended in Sirius wins, eight in Elfsborg victories, and three in draws, with several fixtures producing low-scoring, tightly contested results that rarely breach secondary market thresholds [4].

The 0–0 result itself is the primary catalyst that nullified most “more markets” propositions, as neither side managed to score, eliminating over/under goal-based triggers and reducing the likelihood of high-card or high-corner scenarios. Recent odds data from ESPN showed Elfsborg as the favourite at -160 with an over 2.5 goals line priced at -155, suggesting the market initially expected a more open game; the defensive stalemate contradicted that expectation [2]. For traders reviewing this settlement, the value lies in recognising that when Allsvenskan matchups feature two defensively organised sides—particularly in mid-season fixtures where fatigue or tactical caution prevails—secondary markets often fail to hit, making contrarian bets against “more” outcomes statistically prudent in similar pairings.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.