Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| Qairat FK O/U 0.5 | 95% |
| O/U 1.5 | 86% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 85% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| Qairat FK O/U 1.5 | 79% |
| Qairat FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| O/U 2.5 | 68% |
| Qairat FK (-1.5) | 65% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| Qairat FK O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Qairat FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| FK Sutjeska Nikšić 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| FK Sutjeska Nikšić O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Qairat FK (-2.5) | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score | 42% |
| Qairat FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Qairat FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| FK Sutjeska Nikšić 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| FK Sutjeska Nikšić 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| FK Sutjeska Nikšić 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 22% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 18% |
| O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| FK Sutjeska Nikšić O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| FK Sutjeska Nikšić O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| FK Sutjeska Nikšić (-1.5) | 1% |
| FK Sutjeska Nikšić (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 97% chance of qairat fk vs. fk sutjeska nikšić - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for July 8 at 11:00 AM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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