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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 2 Winner 100% O/U 3.5 Games 100% Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) 100% Volume: $1.1M Liquidity: $1.1M Closes: 12 Jul 2026
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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 2 Winner100%
O/U 3.5 Games100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs NRG (+6.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5)100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5)100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs 100 Thieves (+6.5)100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-7.5) vs 100 Thieves (+7.5)100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-8.5) vs 100 Thieves (+8.5)100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-10.5) vs 100 Thieves (+10.5)100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-9.5) vs 100 Thieves (+9.5)100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs 100 Thieves (+5.5)99%
Match Winner51%
O/U 4.5 Games50%
Map 4 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 5 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)50%
Map 4 Winner14%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.51%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.51%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.51%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs NRG (+6.5)1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.51%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-7.5) vs NRG (+7.5)1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-8.5) vs NRG (+8.5)1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.51%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.51%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.51%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.51%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.51%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.51%
Map 3 Winner0%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)0%
Map Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5)0%
Map Handicap: 100T (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)0%
Map 4 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)0%
Map 4 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)0%
Map 4 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5)0%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: 100 thieves vs nrg (bo5) - esports world cup playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between 100 Thieves and NRG in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 9:45AM ET. This market will …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
and

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