Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: gentle mates vs fut esports (bo3) - vct emea group alpha. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Gentle Mates and FUT Esports in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 18 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: Gentle Mates vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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