Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to hamburg european open, qualification: jessica pieri vs maria lourdes carle. This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pieri and Maria Lourdes Carle in the Hamburg European Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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