Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 70% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 20% |
| Paul Skenes | 7% |
| Dylan Cease | 5% |
| Cam Schlittler | 2% |
| Garrett Crochet | 1% |
| Tarik Skubal | 1% |
| Jesús Luzardo | 1% |
| Hunter Brown | 1% |
| Sonny Gray | 1% |
| Bryan Woo | 1% |
| Shota Imanaga | 1% |
| Reid Detmers | 1% |
| Nolan McLean | 1% |
| Max Fried | 1% |
| Kevin Gausman | 1% |
| Logan Webb | 0% |
| Freddy Peralta | 0% |
| Carlos Rodón | 0% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 0% |
| Zack Wheeler | 0% |
| Joe Ryan | 0% |
| Taj Bradley | 0% |
| José Soriano | 0% |
| Logan Gilbert | 0% |
| Emerson Hancock | 0% |
| Hunter Greene | 0% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0% |
| Pitcher A | 0% |
| Pitcher B | 0% |
| Pitcher C | 0% |
| Pitcher D | 0% |
| Pitcher E | 0% |
| Pitcher F | 0% |
| Pitcher G | 0% |
| Pitcher H | 0% |
| Pitcher I | 0% |
| Pitcher J | 0% |
| Pitcher K | 0% |
| Pitcher L | 0% |
| Pitcher M | 0% |
| Pitcher N | 0% |
| Pitcher O | 0% |
| Pitcher P | 0% |
| Pitcher Q | 0% |
| Pitcher R | 0% |
| Pitcher S | 0% |
| Pitcher T | 0% |
| Pitcher U | 0% |
| Pitcher V | 0% |
| Pitcher W | 0% |
| Pitcher X | 0% |
| Pitcher Y | 0% |
| Pitcher Z | 0% |
| Pitcher AA | 0% |
| Pitcher AB | 0% |
| Pitcher AC | 0% |
| Pitcher AD | 0% |
| Pitcher AE | 0% |
| Pitcher AF | 0% |
| Pitcher AG | 0% |
| Pitcher AH | 0% |
| Pitcher AI | 0% |
| Pitcher AJ | 0% |
| Pitcher AK | 0% |
| Pitcher AL | 0% |
| Pitcher AM | 0% |
| Pitcher AN | 0% |
| Pitcher AO | 0% |
| Pitcher AP | 0% |
| Pitcher AQ | 0% |
| Pitcher AR | 0% |
| Pitcher AS | 0% |
| Pitcher AT | 0% |
| Pitcher AU | 0% |
| Pitcher AV | 0% |
| Pitcher AW | 0% |
| Pitcher AX | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 70% chance of mlb: strikeouts leader - pitcher. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the most strikeouts among pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher on Who Will Win
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