Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
33% | 67% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
33% | 67% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 33% |
| New York Yankees | 11% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 10% |
| Atlanta Braves | 7% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 6% |
| Boston Red Sox | 5% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 5% |
| Seattle Mariners | 4% |
| Chicago Cubs | 4% |
| Chicago White Sox | 3% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2% |
| Houston Astros | 2% |
| Texas Rangers | 2% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1% |
| Minnesota Twins | 1% |
| Detroit Tigers | 1% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1% |
| San Diego Padres | 1% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1% |
| Colorado Rockies | 1% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0% |
| Athletics | 0% |
| New York Mets | 0% |
| Miami Marlins | 0% |
| Washington Nationals | 0% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0% |
| San Francisco Giants | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 33% YES probability for MLB World Series Champion 2026. This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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