Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 85% |
| Pacers O/U 112.5 | 83% |
| Mavericks O/U 105.5 | 82% |
| Pacers O/U 113.5 | 81% |
| O/U 224.5 | 80% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 76% |
| O/U 227.5 | 75% |
| Pacers O/U 116.5 | 74% |
| O/U 230.5 | 71% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 71% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 58.5 | 71% |
| Pacers O/U 117.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 69% |
| O/U 231.5 | 68% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 55.5 | 68% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 68% |
| Pacers O/U 118.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 67% |
| O/U 232.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 65% |
| O/U 233.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 64% |
| Mavericks O/U 111.5 | 64% |
| Spread -3.5 | 63% |
| O/U 234.5 | 63% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 60.5 | 63% |
| O/U 235.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 60% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 60% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 57.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| O/U 236.5 | 58% |
| Spread -5.5 | 57% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 57% |
| Pacers O/U 121.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 57% |
| O/U 237.5 | 56% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 238.5 | 55% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 54% |
| Mavericks O/U 115.5 | 54% |
| Pacers O/U 122.5 | 54% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 53% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 62.5 | 53% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 59.5 | 53% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 61.5 | 53% |
| O/U 239.5 | 53% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| O/U 240.5 | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 49% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| Overtime? | 46% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 64.5 | 44% |
| O/U 243.5 | 43% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 4.5 | 42% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Assists O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Pacers O/U 126.5 | 41% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Obi Toppin: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 61.5 | 39% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 24.5 | 38% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 38% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 38% |
| O/U 246.5 | 37% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Pacers O/U 127.5 | 37% |
| Spread -11.5 | 36% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 34.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 66.5 | 35% |
| Mavericks O/U 121.5 | 35% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 12.5 | 34% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5 | 34% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Pacers O/U 128.5 | 33% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5 | 31% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 60.5 | 31% |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers | 30% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 34.5 | 30% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 30% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| O/U 249.5 | 29% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 4.5 | 29% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Assists O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Obi Toppin: Assists O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 39.5 | 26% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 130.5 | 25% |
| Pacers O/U 131.5 | 25% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 29.5 | 23% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Mavericks O/U 125.5 | 23% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 21% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Mavericks O/U 126.5 | 20% |
| Pacers O/U 133.5 | 20% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 16% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 24.5 | 16% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 15.5 | 16% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 29.5 | 15% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 24.5 | 15% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mavericks vs. pacers stands at 85% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the Pacers win, the market will resolve to "Pacers…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $269K.
Methodology
We track Mavericks vs. Pacers across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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