Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 213.5 | 96% |
| O/U 215.5 | 95% |
| O/U 217.5 | 94% |
| O/U 219.5 | 93% |
| O/U 221.5 | 91% |
| O/U 223.5 | 88% |
| O/U 225.5 | 85% |
| Bulls O/U 110.5 | 84% |
| Wizards O/U 110.5 | 84% |
| O/U 227.5 | 83% |
| O/U 229.5 | 80% |
| Bulls O/U 112.5 | 79% |
| Wizards O/U 112.5 | 79% |
| O/U 230.5 | 78% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| O/U 231.5 | 76% |
| Bulls O/U 114.5 | 74% |
| Wizards O/U 114.5 | 74% |
| O/U 233.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 69% |
| Bulls O/U 116.5 | 69% |
| O/U 235.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 68% |
| O/U 236.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 67% |
| Wizards O/U 116.5 | 67% |
| O/U 237.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 64% |
| Bulls O/U 118.5 | 63% |
| Wizards O/U 118.5 | 63% |
| O/U 238.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 62% |
| O/U 239.5 | 61% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 14.5 | 61% |
| Bulls O/U 120.5 | 57% |
| O/U 241.5 | 56% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 56% |
| Wizards O/U 132.5 | 56% |
| O/U 242.5 | 55% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Wizards O/U 120.5 | 55% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 243.5 | 52% |
| 1H Moneyline | 51% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Bulls O/U 122.5 | 51% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 63.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 244.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Wizards O/U 134.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| Wizards vs. Bulls | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| Wizards O/U 122.5 | 48% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 47% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 20.5 | 46% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 39.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 46% |
| O/U 246.5 | 45% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 34.5 | 45% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 34.5 | 45% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 34.5 | 44% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 44% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Bulls O/U 124.5 | 44% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 39.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 34.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Wizards O/U 124.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 17.5 | 41% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 249.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Bulls O/U 126.5 | 38% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 37% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 22.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 29.5 | 35% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| O/U 252.5 | 33% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Bulls O/U 128.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 12.5 | 32% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 66.5 | 29% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Bulls O/U 130.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| O/U 255.5 | 27% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| Wizards O/U 130.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 24.5 | 24% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 22% |
| Bulls O/U 132.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 21% |
| Spread -11.5 | 20% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 18% |
| Spread -12.5 | 17% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 137.5 | 17% |
| Bulls O/U 134.5 | 17% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 139.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 141.5 | 13% |
| Spread -15.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Spread -18.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -22.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -23.5 | 5% |
| Spread -25.5 | 5% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -24.5 | 4% |
| Spread -26.5 | 4% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -27.5 | 2% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Wizards vs. Bulls. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 8:00PM ET: If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards". If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the game is postpone…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $215K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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