Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| O/U 32.5 | 94% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 91% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 87% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 85% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 76% |
| O/U 42.5 | 74% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| O/U 44.5 | 68% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 64% |
| O/U 46.5 | 63% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 58% |
| Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 48.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 53% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| O/U 50.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| O/U 52.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 43% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 42% |
| 2H Moneyline | 42% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Patriots vs. Bears | 40% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 40% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Safety? | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| O/U 56.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 58.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 60.5 | 24% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 24% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 62.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| O/U 64.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 13% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 1% |
Market context
Patriots vs. Bears — current market-implied probability: 95%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Patriots and Bears, scheduled for October 22 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Patriots" if Patriots win the game. This market will resolve to "Bears…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $129K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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