Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano

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Market context

Bologna travel to the San Siro on 24 May 2026 to face Inter Milan in what will likely be a mid-table fixture for the hosts against Serie A's defending champions or title contenders. The 26% implied probability reflects Inter as heavy favourites, a positioning that aligns with their recent domestic dominance and superior squad depth. Bologna have shown resilience in recent seasons but lack the consistent firepower to trouble elite sides away from home.

Inter's record against mid-table opposition over the past three seasons provides useful context. They have won roughly 70% of such fixtures, though their away form occasionally dips when rotation occurs late in the season. Bologna's home record is respectable—they typically secure draws against top-six sides at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara—but their away record against the elite is substantially weaker, with only one victory in their last twelve such encounters. The 26% probability for a Bologna win thus sits close to their empirical baseline, suggesting limited value in either direction unless injury news or late-season fatigue reshapes the underlying matchup.

Traders should monitor team news from mid-May, particularly Inter's injury status and whether Simone Inzaghi rotates ahead of any European commitments. Bologna's form in the five matches preceding this fixture will signal whether they arrive with momentum or in decline. Late-season fixture congestion often influences away performances; if Inter face a midweek European tie beforehand, that could marginally improve Bologna's chances. Otherwise, the consensus probability appears fairly calibrated to the historical data.

Methodology

We track Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.