Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: TMO (-1.5) vs FOKUS Sakura (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS Sakura (-2.5) vs Twisted Minds Orchid (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Twisted Minds Orchid (-2.5) vs FOKUS Sakura (+2.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FKS (-1.5) vs Twisted Minds Orchid (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS Sakura (-2.5) vs Twisted Minds Orchid (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS Sakura (-2.5) vs Twisted Minds Orchid (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Twisted Minds Orchid (-2.5) vs FOKUS Sakura (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Twisted Minds Orchid (-2.5) vs FOKUS Sakura (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to valorant: twisted minds orchid vs fokus sakura (bo3) - vct game changers emea group stage. This market refers to the Valorant match between Twisted Minds Orchid and FOKUS Sakura in the VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 21 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
We track Valorant: Twisted Minds Orchid vs FOKUS Sakura (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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