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Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury

Five-platform snapshot of "Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

O/U 162.5 53% O/U 163.5 50% Spread -4.5 49% Olivia Nelson-Ododa: Rebounds O/U 6.5 49% Volume: $92K Liquidity: $859K Closes: 18 Jul 2026
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Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 53% 47% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 53% 47% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 162.553%
O/U 163.550%
Spread -4.549%
Olivia Nelson-Ododa: Rebounds O/U 6.549%
Brittney Griner: Points O/U 14.548%
Brittney Griner: Rebounds O/U 6.548%
O/U 164.547%
Spread -5.545%
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury38%
Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 6.535%
Leïla Lacan: Assists O/U 4.533%
Charlisse Leger-Walker: Points O/U 8.533%
Brittney Griner: Rebounds O/U 5.533%
Diamond Miller: Points O/U 8.532%
Olivia Nelson-Ododa: Points O/U 11.531%
Alyssa Thomas: Points O/U 14.530%
Leïla Lacan: Points O/U 12.530%
Brittney Griner: Points O/U 13.530%
Charlisse Leger-Walker: Assists O/U 3.529%
Olivia Nelson-Ododa: Rebounds O/U 7.526%
Alyssa Thomas: Assists O/U 8.526%
Charlisse Leger-Walker: Rebounds O/U 3.523%

Market context

Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury — current market-implied probability: 53%. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 17 at 10:00PM ET: If the Connecticut Sun win, the market will resolve to "Connecticut Sun". If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to "Phoeni…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 162.5 at 53% for "Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury".

O/U 162.5 53% Other 47%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $92K.

Methodology

This page reviews Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Oliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto ReporterandEmma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial Journalist

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