How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

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Market context

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is the underlying event, and the market is pricing a very low chance of a high weekly transit total, with 3% YES implying the consensus expects traffic to remain severely depressed during 11–17 May. The favourite is clearly the “few transits” outcome, but that also creates some room for a contrarian underdog view if even a limited reopening draws a burst of delayed tankers, LNG carriers and regional feeder traffic back through the lane. In comparable chokepoint disruptions, weekly counts can stay near zero for days and then jump unevenly once escorts, routing changes or temporary ceasefires bite, so the shape of the recovery matters as much as the headline security situation. That makes the current price look consistent with a market assuming persistent disruption, while the value case sits on the possibility of a brief but meaningful resumption rather than a full normalisation.

For traders, the main catalysts are operational rather than political: any formal announcement on safe-passage arrangements, convoy schedules, or port reopening will matter more than rhetoric alone. Vessel-tracking updates are crucial because the market settles on IMF Portwatch transit calls, not on anecdotal reports. Recent reporting has pointed to a very thin flow, with a video update on 12–13 May citing only two transits one day and four the next, alongside talk of tankers waiting to clear the strait and of alternative export routes being pushed harder. That leaves the key question as whether queue clearance or rerouting produces a late-week pick-up, or whether insurance, naval risk and port restrictions keep the tally suppressed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

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FAQ

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