Claude 5 released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The question hinges on whether Anthropic will publicly release a model explicitly branded as Claude 5 before the end of 2025. The current crowd assessment sits at 0% implied probability, suggesting near-universal scepticism that such a release occurs within the next twelve months. The settlement criteria require genuine public availability—open beta or rolling waitlist signups qualify, but closed beta access does not.

Anthropic's release cadence provides the historical anchor here. Claude 3 arrived in March 2024 across three capability tiers (Opus, Sonnet, Haiku), with Claude 3.5 Sonnet following in June 2024. The company has favoured incremental model updates and capability releases over major numbered versions. Competitors like OpenAI have similarly stretched intervals between flagship releases: GPT-4 launched in March 2023, with GPT-4 Turbo arriving later that year but no GPT-5 announcement through 2024. The pattern suggests major version jumps occur on multi-year timescales rather than annual cycles.

Catalysts to monitor include Anthropic's quarterly product announcements and any public statements from leadership regarding roadmap priorities. The company typically telegraphs significant releases through developer conferences or blog posts. Recent reporting from December 2024 indicated Anthropic remains focused on scaling existing Claude models and expanding API capabilities rather than pursuing a numbered major version leap. The settlement window extends to April 2026, allowing traders to reassess if unexpected acceleration occurs, though the structural case for a 2025 Claude 5 launch remains thin given current development trajectories and the company's demonstrated preference for iterative rather than revolutionary versioning.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.