Bunschoten: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Filippo Romano

Platform comparison

Market context

Gilles Arnaud Bailly, a 20-year-old Belgian right-hander, faces Filippo Romano in a Bunschoten singles match originally slated for 4:00AM ET on 13 July 2026. The crowd-implied probability for Bailly advancing sits at 0% YES, suggesting the market views him as a near-certain underdog despite his career-high ATP ranking of 201 and a 56% overall win rate [5][9].

Historically, such extreme pricing on a player with a top-210 ranking often signals unresolved injury concerns or a severe mismatch in recent form rather than pure skill disparity. Comparable cases in lower-tier ATP events show that when a player ranked near 200 is priced at 0%, it frequently precedes a no-show or a last-minute withdrawal, creating a contrarian angle where the 50-50 cancellation clause becomes the only realistic value spot if the match proceeds [5].

Traders must monitor the official tournament draw and player schedule updates for Bailly, as any absence from the court before the settlement window closes would trigger the tie resolution. Recent ATP Tour profiles confirm Bailly’s current rank of 210 with minimal titles, indicating limited recent momentum against higher-ranked opponents [7]. Watch for official announcements regarding Romano’s recent surface performance on clay, the likely surface in Bunschoten, as this dependency heavily influences whether the 0% pricing holds or if a late value shift emerges toward the Belgian [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bunschoten: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Filippo Romano across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.