Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon faces Timofey Skatov in the opening round of the 2026 Swiss Open Gstaad on Court 1, with the match scheduled to begin at 12:00 pm local time. The crowd-implied probability of 96% YES for Collignon advancing positions him as a heavy favourite, reflecting a consensus that Skatov lacks the tools to trouble the Belgian on this surface. Historical precedents in ATP Gstaad first-round clashes often see significant upsets when implied probabilities exceed 90%, as fatigue or unforced errors can derail even the most favoured players against resilient underdogs.

Value for contrarian traders likely sits on Skatov if the market fails to account for Collignon’s recent form dips or potential weather delays in the Gstaad valley. Traders should monitor the official ATP Gstaad schedule for any last-minute surface changes or player withdrawals, as these catalysts can rapidly shift probabilities. A recent preview from The Stats Zone explicitly tips Collignon to win 2-0, reinforcing the bullish sentiment but leaving little room for error if the match extends beyond two sets [1]. With the settlement window closing on 20 July 2026, any delay beyond seven days without a winner triggers a 50-50 resolution, adding a binary risk element to the current pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.