National Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Jakub Mensik

Platform comparison

Market context

Jacob Fearnley’s match with Jakub Mensik in Montreal is priced by the crowd at **75%** for the market’s YES side, which means the consensus leans clearly towards the Czech as favourite. That sits above a recent model view of **70%** for Mensik and broadly in line with bookmaker-style pricing that has Mensik around **1.33** to win, so the market is not especially contrarian on the headline outcome.[18]

The key handicapper’s frame is that there is **no head-to-head history**, so traders are leaning on profile rather than direct matchup evidence.[1][3][9] Mensik carries the stronger season record and a much higher overall win rate, with recent hard-court numbers also shading his way, while Fearnley’s results are more modest by comparison.[3][17] That said, some comparable stat sites show the hard-court gap between them is not enormous, which is why the underdog case is not purely speculative if the market has over-weighted ranking and reputation.[14][17]

What matters now is whether the scheduled first- or second-round timing holds, because ATP Masters draws can shift quickly with retirements, late scheduling changes, and weather delays. The match listing was live on Wednesday and the event page identified it as a second-round meeting, so any change to the draw order, walkover, or postponement is the main catalyst for repricing; if the match is delayed beyond the settlement window or never starts, the market’s 50-50 rules become relevant instead of the tennis edge itself.[9][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews National Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Jakub Mensik across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

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Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.