National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet

Platform comparison

Market context

Rafael Jodar against Corentin Moutet is priced at about **73%** for Jodar, so the crowd has the younger player as a clear favourite and Moutet as the underdog. The market’s shape is not absurdly aggressive: independent model checks in the search results are clustered in the same area, with one Elo-based projection at **74.2%** for Jodar and another match predictor showing **78.8%**[2][3]. That leaves only modest room for a contrarian Moutet position unless the price drifts further towards Jodar.

The historical frame is limited because there is **no head-to-head record** between them, so traders have to lean on current level rather than matchup history[1][3][5]. On surface and season form, Jodar’s profile is the stronger one in the available data: a **71.1%** career win rate across 45 matches, versus Moutet’s **44.7%** across 237, with Jodar also ahead on hard courts in the cited records[3]. That supports the favourite tag, but it also explains where value may sit: Moutet brings the more established ATP pedigree, ranking around **59** in the match listings, so any edge for him is more about experience and opponent quality than raw recent win rate[9].

The main catalyst for traders is simple: whether the match is confirmed and goes ahead on schedule, because the market only resolves to a player if one advances, and a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days would settle 50-50. The listing is for a second-round match at the National Bank Open in Montréal, and the available match pages show it as live on 5–6 August, so any order-of-play change, withdrawal news, or weather-driven disruption would matter quickly[4][9][10]. If Jodar is backed at 73%, the better contrarian angle is not necessarily a full Moutet win pick, but waiting for a better entry if pre-match noise pushes the favourite too far beyond the underlying model range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.