Roland Garros ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Yannick Hanfmann

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hamad Medjedovic faces Yannick Hanfmann in the opening round of Roland Garros in May 2026, with the market pricing the Serbian at 85% to advance. Medjedovic, ranked around 130th on the ATP tour, has shown steady improvement through qualifying circuits and lower-tier events, whilst Hanfmann, a German journeyman hovering near 180th, has competed sporadically at Grand Slam level with mixed results. The 85% consensus reflects Medjedovic's superior ranking and recent trajectory, though the early-round setting at a clay-court major introduces volatility that historical data suggests shouldn't be entirely discounted.

First-round Grand Slam matches between players of comparable ranking often produce upsets at rates between 15–25%, particularly when the lower-ranked player possesses clay-court experience or has recently won matches against seeded opposition. Hanfmann's career record on clay shows modest but consistent performances; he's not a liability on the surface. The 85% probability leaves little room for a Hanfmann upset, pricing in near-certainty for Medjedovic despite both men being outside the seeded draw and subject to the unpredictability inherent in early-round play.

Traders should monitor both players' form in the weeks preceding Roland Garros, particularly results from warm-up events in April and early May. Injury reports and court conditions on the scheduled date matter significantly; clay surfaces can favour different playing styles, and weather delays could affect preparation. The settlement window extends to 31 May, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled 24 May fixture, reducing the risk of an unresolved outcome through postponement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.