Wimbledon WTA: Amanda Anisimova vs Sofia Kenin

Platform comparison

Market context

Amanda Anisimova and Sofia Kenin are set to face off in the second round of the Wimbledon WTA, a match originally scheduled for 1 July 2026 but now underway on 2 July. The crowd-implied probability sits at 100% YES for Anisimova advancing, reflecting near-total consensus that she will win. Historically, Kenin holds a 2–1 head-to-head advantage over Anisimova, yet grass form this season tilts decisively toward Anisimova, who has won two of three matches on turf compared to Kenin’s two losses in three [1][4]. Past Wimbledon encounters between the pair have been tight, but Anisimova’s superior point-holding pattern—80% of service points retained—suggests a clearer path to victory this time [4].

Traders should monitor live set scores and any injury updates, as Anisimova’s odds (1.153) imply a high-confidence 2–0 set win [1]. Contrarian value may exist if Kenin’s resilience on break points surfaces, though her grass record (2–3) makes this unlikely [4]. FanDuel and Tennis Tonic both back Anisimova, with the latter predicting a straight-sets win [1][3]. The settlement window closes on 8 July 2026, so any delay beyond seven days without a winner would trigger a 50–50 resolution, though current momentum suggests a decisive outcome. No recent news source contradicts this trajectory, and the market remains heavily skewed toward Anisimova as the favourite [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.