Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.

Next Press Secretary? — Live Prediction Market | Who Will Win 2026

Name: Next Press Secretary?
Start: 2026-10-16T18:13:00.000Z
End: 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	50%	50%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Live odds →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	50%	50%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Live odds →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Live odds →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Live odds →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Candidate U	50%
Candidate V	50%
Candidate W	50%
Candidate X	50%
Candidate Y	50%
Candidate Z	50%
Candidate AA	50%
Candidate AB	50%
Candidate AC	50%
Candidate AD	50%
Candidate AE	50%
Candidate AF	50%
Candidate AG	50%
Candidate AH	50%
Candidate AI	50%
Candidate AJ	50%
Candidate AK	50%
Candidate AL	50%
Candidate AM	50%
Candidate AN	50%
Candidate AO	50%
Candidate AP	50%
Candidate AQ	50%
Candidate AR	50%
Candidate AS	50%
Candidate AT	50%
Candidate AU	50%
Candidate AV	50%
Candidate AW	50%
Candidate AX	50%
Candidate AY	50%
Candidate AZ	50%
Candidate BA	50%
Candidate BB	50%
Candidate BC	50%
Candidate BD	50%
Candidate BE	50%
Candidate BF	50%
Candidate BG	50%
Candidate BH	50%
Candidate BI	50%
Candidate BJ	50%
Candidate BK	50%
Candidate BL	50%
Candidate BM	50%
Candidate BN	50%
Candidate BO	50%
Candidate BP	50%
Candidate BQ	50%
Candidate BR	50%
Candidate BS	50%
Candidate BT	50%
Candidate BU	50%
Candidate BV	50%
Candidate BW	50%
Candidate BX	50%
Candidate BY	50%
Candidate BZ	50%
Candidate CA	50%
Candidate CB	50%
Candidate CC	50%
Candidate CD	50%
Candidate CE	50%
Candidate CF	50%
Candidate CG	50%
Candidate CH	50%
Candidate CI	50%
Other	50%
Scott Jennings	20%
Kush Desai	17%
Alina Habba	16%
Kari Lake	14%
Lara Trump	13%
Laura Loomer	13%
Anna Kelly	12%
Lauren Bis	11%
Tricia McLaughlin	11%
Monica Crowley	11%
Kaelan Dorr	10%
Harrison Fields	10%
Spencer Pratt	10%
Beni Rae Harmony	9%
Kayleigh McEnany	7%
Taylor Rogers	5%
Katie Pavlich	5%
Hogan Gidley	5%
Natalie Harp	5%
Katie Miller	5%
Pat Adams	4%
Liz Huston	4%
Ari Fleischer	4%
Matthew Boyle	4%
Elizabeth Pipko	4%
Margo Martin	3%
Rachel Campos-Duffy	3%
Maria Bartiromo	3%
Karoline Leavitt	3%
Jake Paul	2%
Steven Cheung	1%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, next press secretary? stands at 50% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Katie Zacharia by Decembe…

Methodology

We track Next Press Secretary? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?: Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?: Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?: UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?: UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporterand

Emma RobertsFinancial Journalist

Trade Next Press Secretary? on Who Will Win

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Next Press Secretary?

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Trade Next Press Secretary? on Who Will Win

Related live markets

Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?

Fed Decision in October?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through 2026?

Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina

Brazil Presidential Election

Valorant: Team Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO5) - VCT Champions Playoffs

Related Topics