Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains firmly in the White House, with the crowd-implied probability of him resigning or being removed before 31 July 2026 sitting at just 1% YES. This market treats Trump as the overwhelming favourite to stay in office, while any exit scenario is the distant underdog. The consensus is heavily skewed toward continuity, yet contrarian value may lurk if impeachment odds rise sharply, as Kalshi recently estimated removal chances at nearly 28.7% for his second term—a record high that suggests the 1% market price could be undervaluing tail risk[1].

Historically, presidential removal requires a two-thirds majority in both House and Senate, a threshold rarely met; temporary invocations of the 25th Amendment reset within 21 days unless Congress sustains them[5]. No president has been permanently removed via impeachment since Andrew Johnson’s 1868 trial failed by one vote, framing the 1% probability as historically grounded rather than speculative. However, recent Democratic rhetoric has grown bolder following Trump’s Iran threats, with multiple lawmakers publicly calling for removal or 25th Amendment invocation[4][8].

Traders should monitor House vote counts, as Democrats were reportedly two votes short of advancing a major removal effort by March 31, though this claim remains unconfirmed by official sources[2]. Key catalysts include any formal impeachment announcement, Senate scheduling, and dependencies on Republican retention of congressional majorities[7]. A sudden shift in Kalshi’s removal probability or a confirmed House vote would signal value entry, given the current 1% pricing[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.