Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures are expected to remain near record levels in 2026, yet natural ocean cooling patterns suggest the year will likely slip behind the heatwaves of 2023 and 2024. The crowd-implied probability of 34% for 2026 ranking as the hottest year (rank 1) treats it as the favourite, but historical precedence and current modelling point to it being an underdog for the top spot. Berkeley Earth estimates a 51% chance of 2026 ranking fourth, with only a 10% probability of it taking first place, indicating the consensus may be overvaluing the likelihood of a new record despite the World Meteorological Organization noting an 86% chance that *some* year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 [1][2].

Traders should monitor the persistence of La Niña conditions, which are expected to keep 2026 cooler than the previous two record years, and watch for any sudden shifts in tropical Pacific temperatures that could alter the trajectory [2]. The EU Climate Service already flagged January 2026 as the fifth-warmest January on record, while May 2026 saw the second-highest monthly temperature in 177 years, creating a volatile early-year signal that requires careful seasonal weighting [3][8]. Value likely sits on the contrarian angle that 2026 will rank third or fourth, as the 34% YES price for rank 1 ignores the high probability of 2025’s cooling trend continuing into the current year [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.