Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol’s **highest temperature** will be judged against a late-July daily range that is usually modest by continental standards: Amsterdam’s average July high is about 21-22°C, with 30 July typically sitting around the low 20s Celsius and only occasionally pushing into the high 20s. That makes the current **0% YES** on the named outcome easy to read as a longshot price, with the market clustering around the mid-20s outcomes rather than an extreme heat print. [2][5][8][9][11]

For a handicapper, the favourite is not “hot weather” in the abstract but the precise bucket where the day’s maximum lands at Schiphol; that matters because a degree or two either side can shift the settlement band. The consensus from the live market is currently concentrated on **25°C-27°C**, with 25°C and 26°C both leading at 21%, while the value on the underdog side sits in the tails if the day turns more Atlantic and cloudier than forecast. Historical July data suggest Amsterdam can spike, but it more often settles near the low 20s, which is why the market is pricing a narrow set of outcomes rather than a broad heatwave distribution. [1][2][5][7][10]

The key catalysts are the short-range forecast updates for Schiphol: cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, wind direction, and any late-afternoon shower line can all cap the day’s maximum, while a clear, sunny run-up can still allow a late push higher. Because the market resolves to the **highest temperature recorded on 30 July** at the airport station, traders should watch intraday forecasts rather than just the daytime high headline, since the settlement window runs to 12:00Z and the eventual peak can occur after the morning build-up. Wunderground is the settlement source, so the practical driver is whether the airport station verifies a bucket around the current consensus or a surprise move into the warmer tails.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.