Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol’s 31 July high is trading as a **0% implied-probability** event, which makes the market a very strong favourite for the *no* side and leaves any yes position as a deep contrarian punt. July in Amsterdam usually produces daily highs in the low 20s Celsius, with long-run averages around **22°C** and typical late-July highs in the low-to-mid 20s rather than anything exceptional.[8][12][13] That framing matters because the resolution is not the day’s average, but the single highest reading at Schiphol; even so, the consensus climatology still sits well below the upper heat thresholds that would be needed to make a yes outcome competitive.[1][10]

The historical angle is simple: Amsterdam’s July heat is variable, but the distribution is still anchored around modest summer warmth, with average highs near **21–22°C** and only occasional spikes into the high 20s or low 30s.[1][8][10] Recent forecast-style outputs for Amsterdam on 31 July have generally pointed to a high around **26°C**, which is warm enough to lift the day above average but still not obviously in the range where a very high settlement band becomes likely.[3] For a handicapper, that means the consensus is firmly “ordinary summer day”, while the only value on the board is the tiny tail risk of a brief warm surge or localised sunny break pushing the Schiphol maximum above expectations.

Traders should watch the short-range forecast path for northwest Europe, especially any late-week changes in cloud cover, wind direction, and rain timing, because those are the main drivers of whether Schiphol nudges a few degrees warmer than modelled. Airport temperatures can differ from central Amsterdam, so the key dependency is the official Schiphol history page the market cites, not city-centre observations.[1] With the settlement window ending at noon UTC, only the daytime maximum before that cutoff will matter, which slightly favours early warmth rather than any later-afternoon spike.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.