Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24?

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Market context

On 24 May 2026, Ankara's highest temperature will be recorded at Esenboğa International Airport, with the market currently pricing all outcome ranges at zero probability—a technical artefact suggesting insufficient trading volume rather than genuine certainty about the day's weather. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical data feed for that specific station, which serves as Turkey's primary aviation weather observation point.

Ankara's May climate sits firmly in late spring, with historical highs typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C during this period. The city experiences continental conditions with low precipitation likelihood in late May, and the airport station—located at 997 metres elevation on the Anatolian plateau—records temperatures marginally cooler than central Ankara itself. Comparable May 24th data from previous years shows the range clustering between 26°C and 33°C, with extremes rare but not unprecedented. The 0% crowd probability reflects absent market interest rather than any meteorological consensus; traders have simply not engaged with this specific date-location combination.

The relevant catalyst is the Turkish Meteorological Institute's seasonal forecast, typically updated in April, which will provide confidence intervals for late-May conditions across central Anatolia. Traders should monitor whether spring weather patterns favour high-pressure systems (pushing temperatures toward the 32–35°C range) or unsettled Atlantic influences (constraining highs to 24–28°C). The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 24 May, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution, which may create basis risk for those trading on overnight forecasts rather than actual recorded data.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.