Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

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Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport on 25 May 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and resolved via Weather Underground's historical records. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or uncertainty about which temperature band will be selected as the operative range.

Atlanta's late May climate sits in a predictable band. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that the airport station records highs between 82°F and 92°F on this date across recent decades, with a median around 87°F. The city rarely experiences extreme heat in late May—temperatures above 95°F are uncommon before June, whilst readings below 80°F occur in roughly one year in five. This historical clustering means the eventual range will almost certainly fall within a narrow window, making the market's current 0% reading an artefact of settlement mechanics rather than genuine uncertainty about whether Atlanta will experience a measurable high temperature.

The National Weather Service Southeast Region issues extended forecasts by mid-May that typically narrow the range considerably. Traders should monitor late-May atmospheric patterns—specifically whether a high-pressure system settles over the Southeast or whether tropical moisture from the Gulf drives cloud cover and suppression of afternoon highs. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook and any early tropical activity could influence May conditions, though such systems rarely affect Atlanta directly before June. Once the market's range options are clarified, historical precedent suggests the favourite will cluster around 85–90°F.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.