Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s high for 10 August is the key variable, with the market’s crowd-implied probability at **0% YES**, so the board is effectively pricing the upper temperature bands as unlikely rather than impossible. For a handicapper, that makes the favourite the lower-to-mid 30s Celsius outcomes, with the underdog sitting in the hottest bands if the day runs above seasonal norms. Weather references for Beijing in August cluster around daytime highs near **30–31°C**, with historical August averages around **31°C** and comparable 10 August readings often landing in the low 30s rather than the upper 30s.[3][4][8][15]

That framing leaves the main value question with the tail: whether heat, clear skies and weak wind push the airport station into an above-consensus spike, or whether the usual summer pattern caps the peak in the low 30s. Beijing’s record highs are far above normal, but those extremes are not the base case; recent historical pages for 10 August show plenty of 29–34°C outcomes, and published August climatology also points to a typical ceiling near 31°C.[10][16][17] With the market at 0% for YES, any confirmed forecast or live observation trend towards the mid-30s would be the contrarian angle, while a routine summer reading would favour the consensus.

For traders, the practical catalyst is the intraday weather evolution at Beijing Capital International Airport rather than the calendar alone, because the market settles from the **Daily Observations** table on Weather Underground, not the summary box.[7] Watch for changes in cloud cover, wind and afternoon heating, plus any updated airport forecast pages or local aviation observations; Beijing’s July-August heat can shift quickly, but the early-morning reading around 7 UTC is usually only part of the day’s range, not the settlement point.[1][7][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.