Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 12 August 2026, resolved via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current state rather than a forecast of actual conditions; August in Beijing typically sees daily highs between 29–33°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves.

Beijing's August climate is shaped by the East Asian summer monsoon, which brings humid subtropical conditions and frequent afternoon thunderstorms. Historical data shows that extreme heat events (above 38°C) occur roughly once every three to five years during August, whilst temperatures exceeding 40°C remain rare but not unprecedented. The city recorded 41.9°C in June 2022 and has seen multiple days above 38°C in recent summers, establishing that the upper temperature ranges remain plausible outcomes rather than statistical outliers. Current meteorological patterns and long-range forecasts for summer 2026 remain unavailable, leaving traders without concrete seasonal guidance.

The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than summary figures—introduces a technical dependency that could affect marginal cases. Traders should monitor whether any range-specific forecasts emerge as August 2026 approaches, particularly from China's National Meteorological Centre or international weather services. The current 0% probability suggests minimal market participation; any shift in consensus would likely reflect updated seasonal forecasts or unusual atmospheric patterns flagged by meteorological agencies in the months preceding the settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.