Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The day’s **highest temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport** is the key number here, and the market’s **0% YES** implies the crowd is effectively pricing in an outcome that sits outside the listed range. For a late-season Beijing summer reading, the natural favourite is still a **hot afternoon spike** rather than a cool miss: August normals are firmly warm, with forecast services putting Beijing’s August highs around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, and some daily outlooks for 4 August pointing to the mid-30s.[2][3][4][15][19] On that framing, the consensus appears to be clustered around the mid-30s, while the value in a contrarian angle is any belief that cloud, rain, or a lower airport-specific high keeps the top reading down rather than producing the usual muggy peak.[1][3][8]

Historically, Beijing in August often trades as a **heat-first, rain-risk-second** setup: daytime maxima commonly sit around 30–31°C, but individual forecast services also show upside into 34–36°C on 4 August, which is enough to keep the upside scenario as the favourite and make any sub-30 or low-30s print a true underdog view.[1][3][11][15][17] The main catalyst to watch is the local weather evolution rather than any scheduled policy event: precipitation probabilities are elevated in several forecasts, and rain timing matters because the market settles on the **highest recorded temperature** at the airport station, not the citywide average.[1][3][13] Traders should also watch for forecast updates through the day, because a morning-to-afternoon warm-up, or an earlier shower that caps heating, is the cleanest route to a surprise against the current consensus.[1][8][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.