Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is currently experiencing mid-July heat, with the Beijing Capital International Airport Station expected to record its peak daily temperature in degrees Celsius before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC today. The market currently implies a 0% probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, despite July being Beijing’s hottest month where highs frequently reach 30°C or exceed 40°C in extreme years like 2023[2]. Historical data shows daily highs in July average around 31°C (88°F), rarely dropping below 26°C (78°F) or exceeding 35°C (96°F), making a sub-30°C reading statistically unlikely unless a significant cool front intervenes[3].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground readings for the ZBAA station, as the market resolves strictly on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 12 July 2026[1]. While the current frontrunner on Polymarket for a similar Beijing July 12 market is 30°C at 27%, the 0% implied probability here may represent a contrarian value spot if the crowd has mispriced the likelihood of a heatwave pushing temperatures into the 31–35°C range[1]. Recent records indicate China experienced its hottest July month on record in 2023, with Nanjiao observatory temperatures surpassing 40°C, reinforcing the risk that consensus underestimates extreme heat potential[6]. No specific announcements are pending, but the dependency remains solely on the live Wunderground history feed, which traders must watch until the 12:00 UTC deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.