Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing faces its peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the market asking whether the highest temperature at the Capital International Airport will exceed a specific threshold. The crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting consensus expects temperatures to remain well below the strike, yet historical data reveals July is Beijing’s hottest month, with daily highs averaging 31°C and frequently exceeding 36°C during heatwaves [1][3]. Record-breaking events are not anomalies: the city hit 41.1°C in June 2023 and 42.1°C on 5 July 2010, proving that extreme peaks above 40°C are physically plausible in mid-July [2][9].

The 0% probability appears to be an underdog mispricing, as traders are likely anchoring to average conditions rather than extreme outliers. Value may sit contrarian to the crowd if a heatwave develops, a scenario supported by 2023’s blistering June temperatures and the statistical likelihood of July maxima reaching above 40°C during extreme events [1][10]. Key catalysts include the National Meteorological Centre’s heatwave forecasts and real-time Wunderground readings for the ZBAA station, which will determine settlement [1]. Traders should monitor announcements of high-pressure systems moving over northern China, as these are the primary drivers of the blistering heatwaves that have previously shattered records [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.