Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 21 July 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport meteorological station and resolved against historical data from Weather Underground. July represents the height of Beijing's summer season, when daily highs typically range between 29–33°C, though extreme heat events can push readings above 35°C. The crowd currently implies a 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which specific range will resolve.

Historical precedent shows Beijing experiences significant temperature volatility in mid-to-late July. The city recorded 41.9°C on 20 June 2022 during an exceptional heatwave, though July peaks tend to be marginally lower than June extremes. Over the past decade, 21 July highs have ranged from 26°C to 35°C depending on monsoon activity and atmospheric pressure systems. The absence of any meaningful probability allocation suggests the market has attracted minimal liquidity rather than reflecting genuine consensus that all outcomes are equally unlikely.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts from late June 2026 onwards, particularly tracking the position of the North China Plain high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific. The East Asian summer monsoon's strength directly influences whether warm, dry continental air or cooler, moisture-laden maritime air dominates Beijing during this period. Recent patterns from 2024–2025 suggest increasingly volatile seasonal transitions, making historical July averages less reliable for handicapping extreme outcomes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.