Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s airport high on 31 July is a straight heat-summer weather bet, and the crowd’s **0% YES** implies the market is effectively pricing the top bucket as unreachable. That makes **NO** the clear favourite and leaves any meaningful upside concentrated in a narrow tail: a very hot, dry afternoon, rather than the more typical humid but less explosive July setup. Beijing’s July climate is already warm, with average highs around **31°C** and late-July daily averages close to the low 30s, so the consensus sits around a solid but not extreme afternoon high rather than a record-type spike.[2][6][7]

The historical frame is important because Beijing’s July ceiling is high enough to keep contrarian interest alive, but not so high that the upper ranges are routine. Long-run Beijing weather references show a July record high of **41.9°C** and a late-July daily record high around **35.9°C** on 31 July in one historical set, which helps explain why traders rarely pay up for the very top bands unless a heatwave pattern is entrenched.[3][11] In handicapper terms, the favourite is still the cooler, middling outcome; the value spot is usually in the middle temperature bands, while a contrarian nibble on the highest range only makes sense if the day is already opening hot and cloud-free, with little convective relief in the forecast.[6][10][16]

What matters into settlement is the live forecast for Beijing Capital International Airport rather than citywide averages, because the market resolves on the station’s observed maximum temperature from Wunderground.[15] Traders should watch the day’s morning and early-afternoon forecast trend, any shift in cloud cover, rainfall odds, and whether the airport station is running a degree or two cooler than the urban core; Beijing’s July weather can swing sharply with rain and humidity, which can cap the high even in a hot spell.[5][7][11] If a heat alert or a notably hot pattern is confirmed by mainstream weather services, the top bucket may gain some late value, but absent that, the consensus remains firmly against a standout peak.[13][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.