Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 16 June 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and settled against historical data from Wunderground. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to this event resolving, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or indifference to the market structure itself.

Mid-June in Beijing typically falls within the early summer window, with historical records showing maximum temperatures ranging from 28°C to 35°C during this period. The 0% implied probability across all outcomes indicates either a technical issue with market liquidity or traders viewing the settlement mechanism with scepticism. Comparable June temperature patterns from 2015–2024 show that temperatures exceeding 32°C occur in roughly 60% of years, whilst readings below 28°C are uncommon. The absence of any probability mass suggests the market lacks sufficient participation to establish a consensus view, creating potential value for traders willing to anchor on climatological norms rather than crowd sentiment.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early June, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks. Any unusual heat dome or cold front systems affecting northern China in that window could shift expectations materially. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data feed for ZBAA station, making data availability and reporting consistency the critical dependency. Given the zero-probability state, even modest trading activity establishing a baseline forecast would represent movement from an effectively inactive market.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.