Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

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Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 25 May 2026, with settlement based on historical weather data from Wunderground. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about range placement or awaiting clearer seasonal patterns before committing capital.

Beijing's late May climate sits firmly in late spring, with historical highs typically ranging between 28–32°C at the airport station. The 25th falls within a period when afternoon temperatures regularly exceed 30°C, though occasional cooler systems can suppress maxima into the mid-20s. Comparable years show May 25 highs clustering around 29–31°C, with extremes on record reaching 34°C and lows near 22°C. The current zero probability across all ranges suggests the market lacks sufficient liquidity or consensus forecasting to establish baseline odds, rather than indicating genuine uncertainty about whether temperatures will occur.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released through April and early May 2026, particularly any signals from the East Asian monsoon onset or anomalous high-pressure systems that could drive temperatures above or below the historical median. China's meteorological authority typically publishes monthly outlooks with lead times of 2–3 weeks; these will prove material for positioning. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the 25th, allowing traders to adjust positions based on morning forecasts and early-day observations from the airport station itself.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.