Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26?

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Market context

The settlement hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 26 May 2026, measured in Celsius. The market's 0% implied probability suggests traders are not currently pricing any specific temperature range as the likely outcome, reflecting genuine uncertainty about which band will contain the day's peak reading.

Beijing's late May climate sits at the cusp of late spring and early summer. Historical data from the airport station shows May highs typically range between 28–32°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 35°C during heat waves. The 0% reading across all ranges is unusual and likely reflects insufficient trading volume rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. Comparable May days at the same station provide a baseline: the past decade shows most readings cluster in the 29–31°C band, with roughly one in four years seeing temperatures exceed 32°C. This distribution should anchor expectations about which ranges carry genuine probability weight.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in the week preceding 26 May, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration, which publishes extended outlooks roughly ten days ahead. Atmospheric patterns in late May depend heavily on whether subtropical high-pressure systems have established dominance over northern China by that date—a shift typically occurring between mid-May and early June. Any unusual spring heat waves or cold fronts affecting East Asia in the weeks prior would signal whether 2026's May 26 is likely to run warm or cool relative to the thirty-year normal.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.