Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Buenos Aires' Minister Pistarini International Airport on 18 July 2026. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the eventual range to fall outside the current upper bound, or that no clear consensus has formed around which temperature bracket will contain the day's peak.

July sits within Buenos Aires' winter season, when mean daily highs typically range between 13–15°C. Historical data from the airport station shows winter extremes rarely exceed 20°C, with temperatures below 10°C common on cold fronts. The 0% reading indicates either that the market's temperature brackets are pitched too high for mid-winter conditions, or that traders are hedging against an unseasonable warm spell. Comparable July days at the station over the past decade provide the most reliable baseline; most years see highs between 8–18°C, with outlier warm days reaching into the low 20s only occasionally.

The settlement window closes at midday on 18 July 2026, capturing the morning and early-afternoon period when temperatures typically peak. Traders should monitor Southern Hemisphere weather forecasts from late June onwards, particularly any anomalous warm-air intrusions from lower latitudes or blocking high-pressure systems that could drive temperatures above seasonal norms. Argentina's meteorological service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks in advance; any prediction of above-average winter warmth would shift market expectations materially.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.