Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s **highest temperature on 10 August** is being priced like a low-side favourite at **0% YES**, which points to the market consensus being that the day’s peak will land in the lowest temperature band available or at least stay well below any hotter alternative. That framing is consistent with the published August climatology: Busan’s average high on 10 August is about 87.3°F, or roughly 30.7°C, and August is the city’s hottest month on average, but recent forecast lines are notably softer than that baseline, with AccuWeather showing about 86°F/74°F and timeanddate’s extended forecast around 83°F/77°F with thunderstorms early and overcast conditions.[1][7][12][13]

For a handicapper, the key comparison is between the climatological heat ceiling and the current short-range setup. Busan’s historical August record is much higher, with the city’s all-time peak reported at 33°C, yet those extremes are rare relative to the monthly mean, and the current forecast bundle leans cooler than a classic heat-day setup.[7][8][12][14] With the implied probability at zero, the market is effectively treating hotter bands as longshots; the main contrarian angle is that late-morning clearing or localised downslope warmth could still push the observed station maximum above the forecast headline, but the value case appears to sit with the cooler side unless the daytime cloud cover erodes faster than expected.[11][13][14]

Traders should watch the same-day evolution at Gimhae Intl Airport rather than the broader Busan summary, because settlement uses Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table, not the Day High & Low panel.[5] That makes the timing of convective showers, wind shifts, and any break in cloud cover more important than the advertised daily high, especially since the forecast sources already flag early thunderstorms, breezy conditions, and moderate rain chances for 10 August.[13][14] A late change in the morning observation pattern would matter most if the first valid higher reading arrives before cloud and rain suppress the afternoon climb.[5][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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