Highest temperature in Busan on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport on 17 August 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting the crowd expects no outcome to occur—an impossible resolution state. Busan's August climate is consistently hot and humid; historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows daily highs in mid-August typically range between 28°C and 32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The 0% implied probability reflects either a technical issue with market setup or extreme undervaluation of all temperature bands, creating potential value across the board depending on which specific range the market eventually settles into.

August 2026 falls within the typical monsoon transition period for South Korea's southern coast. Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any heat wave advisories issued in the weeks preceding mid-August, as these directly influence whether temperatures cluster toward the lower or upper end of Busan's normal range. Recent patterns show that La Niña or El Niño conditions can shift August temperatures by 1–2°C regionally. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a minor technical dependency; historical discrepancies between these sources are rare but documented, so confirming data availability for Gimhae station before the resolution window closes is prudent.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Busan on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.