Highest temperature in Busan on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport on 18 August 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient trading activity to establish a meaningful consensus. Busan's August climate is characterised by intense heat and humidity; historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows mid-August temperatures at Gimhae typically peak between 28–32°C, with occasional excursions above 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability indicates traders have either converged on a single temperature band or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to generate differentiated odds across the full range of possible outcomes.

August represents Busan's hottest month, with the city experiencing monsoon-influenced weather patterns that can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation or intensify heat through stagnant high-pressure systems. The resolution methodology—drawing from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Gimhae rather than summary figures—introduces a technical dependency on real-time station data rather than interpolated forecasts. Traders should monitor late-July and early-August weather patterns across the Korean peninsula, particularly the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, both of which materially influence Busan's temperature trajectory heading into mid-August. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 18 August, creating a narrow window for final price discovery once the day's maximum temperature becomes observable.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

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