Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Gimhae International Airport's weather station will record the daily maximum temperature in Busan on 28 July 2026. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise. July sits firmly within Busan's summer monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C.

Historical data from the same station shows July maxima clustering in the 29–31°C range across most years, with excursions above 33°C occurring roughly once per decade during particularly intense heat episodes. The 2018 Korean heat wave saw Busan reach 34.5°C in mid-July, whilst more typical summers remain anchored in the low-to-mid 30s. The 0% crowd probability reflects either a market with insufficient participation or traders awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital.

Traders should monitor the East Asian summer monsoon progression and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late July 2026, both of which materially affect Korean peninsula temperatures. The Korean Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts three weeks ahead; their mid-July 2026 outlook will be the primary catalyst for shifting probabilities. Gimhae's coastal location moderates extremes compared to inland Korean cities, making readings above 34°C relatively uncommon despite the region's reputation for summer heat.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Busan on July 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.