Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is currently experiencing its peak summer heat, with July routinely delivering fuggy conditions where temperatures can climb to 38°C. The market on the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 11 July 2026 shows a crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting the consensus firmly believes the day will not breach the specific threshold in question. Historical data confirms July is the hottest month, with average highs around 31°C and occasional spikes reaching 38°C, yet the current pricing implies a significant deviation from these extreme upper limits is unlikely for this specific date [3][4].

The 0% implied probability acts as a heavy underdog signal, positioning the market as a clear favourite for cooler outcomes despite the basin geography that typically favours high-30s readings. Value may sit on the contrarian angle that the crowd is overreacting to typical monsoon dampness, ignoring the potential for a sudden heat spike common in the middle ten days of July [5]. Traders should watch real-time Wunderground updates for the Shuangliu station, as the settlement relies entirely on this single data point, and monitor any sudden shifts in local humidity or cloud cover that could suppress the peak temperature below the threshold [8]. Recent analysis of the adjacent 10 July market pricing 38°C at 28.5% suggests thin volume and high volatility in these bins, meaning the 0% reading on the 11 July contract could be an inefficient price if a heatwave materialises [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.