Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is currently experiencing mid-July heat, with today’s conditions already pushing into the upper range of seasonal norms as the city faces its hottest period. The market for the highest temperature on 13 July 2026 at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport shows a 0% implied probability for any outcome below 36°C, with the crowd heavily favouring 38°C at 34% and 37°C at 28% [1]. Historical July climatology in Chengdu centres on 30–32°C averages, though spikes to 35°C+ are common, and recent years have seen peaks reaching 38°C [1][2]. The record high for the region hit 38.6°C in August 2022, suggesting that 38°C is a plausible but not guaranteed ceiling for this date [8].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground readings for the Shuangliu station, as the market resolves strictly on the day’s peak Celsius value recorded there [1]. A key catalyst is the broader heat trend across China, which experienced its hottest July on record in 2023, with average temperatures surpassing all previous data since 1961 [5]. If cloud cover or humidity increases later today, the 37°C outcome could gain value against the current 38°C favourite, offering a contrarian angle where the consensus may be overconfident in the higher spike [1][9]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, so intraday fluctuations will be decisive.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.