Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s midsummer heat in the Sichuan Basin typically pushes peak temperatures into the 37–38°C range on 16 July, a pattern that defines the baseline for this weather market. The crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting the market currently believes the highest temperature will fall outside the specific range being bet on, yet trader sentiment on Polymarket identifies 37–38°C as the most likely outcome, reflecting strong model consensus for typical conditions [1]. This divergence between the zero probability and the consensus range creates a clear underdog scenario for the YES side, where value may exist if historical variability or an unexpected heat spike pushes the temperature into the contested bracket.

Historical data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport shows that July peaks frequently cluster around 37°C, with occasional spikes to 39°C during intense heatwaves, framing the 0% probability as potentially overly conservative against standard midsummer volatility. Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for the day’s highest recorded temperature at the airport station, as any revision before the first datapoint for 17 July could alter the settlement [1]. No specific announcements or schedules currently act as catalysts, but the dependency on Wunderground’s daily history means the market’s value hinges entirely on the station’s recorded peak, making contrarian bets on the YES side a logical play if the consensus range of 37–38°C proves accurate.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.