Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport high on 31 July will almost certainly land in the **30s Celsius**, with the market’s current **0% YES** implying the crowd is treating an extreme outcome as essentially out of play. That makes the favourite the lower temperature bands rather than any top-end range: several forecasts cluster around the low-to-mid 30s, including 33°C from yr.no, 35°C from the Met Office, and 37°C on Ventusky at the warmest point of the day.[3][10][13] By comparison, historical July context also points to a warm but not exceptional ceiling, with July averages around 30-31°C and occasional spikes towards 38°C, so the consensus sits nearer a hot-but-normal day than a record chase.[14][15][19]

The main trader watchlist is straightforward: cloud cover, showers and timing. Chengdu is in its rainy season, and forecast models show mixed signals on precipitation, from light rain or overcast periods to only modest rain chances later in the day, which could cap the maximum if convection is earlier or more persistent.[3][4][5][10][13] The value case, if any, sits with the contrarian view that Chengdu can still overshoot forecast highs when humidity and weak winds trap heat; one official city bulletin has Chengdu at 38°C maximum for the day, well above some private forecasts, which is the clearest source of upside risk for upper temperature bands.[8] In handicapper terms, the consensus favours a mid-30s print, but the market may be underpricing a late-day warm-up if showers stay patchy rather than sustained.[8][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.