Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

Chengdu’s airport thermometer is starting from a low bar for a **0% YES** market: the crowd is effectively pricing in no chance of an extreme heat reading, so the favourite is the *lower* temperature bands rather than a hot spike. June in Chengdu is usually warm but not uniformly scorching, with average highs around 81–83°F and highs above 91°F described as rare in the month-long climate profile.[1] That makes a mid-20s to low-30s Celsius outcome the consensus lane, while the contrarian value spot is any band covering a brief late-day surge rather than the day’s average.

For a handicapper, the key is whether the airport station gets a one-off heat burst or stays locked into the city’s usual humid, cloud-prone June pattern. Travel guides and climate summaries note that Chengdu can still produce isolated mid- to late-June highs in the mid-to-high 30s Celsius, though such days are less typical than the ordinary warm range.[2][4] The market will settle off the highest reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, so traders should watch the local forecast for sun breaks, rain timing, and any late-afternoon heating window; the resolution source is Wunderground’s daily history page for that station.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.