Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 11 August 2026 at 0% probability for the top range, suggesting the crowd expects a cooler-than-baseline outcome for that specific date. Chongqing sits in a basin surrounded by hills, creating a heat-trapping geography that routinely produces some of China's highest summer temperatures. August is the tail end of the city's hottest season, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 32°C and 37°C during this period.

Historical data from the same station shows August temperatures cluster heavily in the 33–36°C band, with readings exceeding 37°C occurring roughly once every two to three years during peak summer months. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are anchoring to recent years' patterns or expecting atmospheric conditions—such as increased cloud cover or moisture influx from tropical systems—to suppress peak heating. This positioning leaves potential value in temperature ranges that align with Chongqing's documented August norms, particularly if high-pressure systems establish over central China in early August 2026.

The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a technical dependency worth monitoring. Any discrepancies between real-time station readings and processed summaries could affect settlement interpretation, though the specification provides clarity on which source takes precedence. Traders should track seasonal weather forecasts released in July 2026 and any monsoon activity patterns that might influence atmospheric conditions across the Yangtze River basin in the days preceding 11 August.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.